By the end of 2008, the Republican Party seemed to be in disarray. That year, Democrats took control of the New York State Senate for the first time in more than four decades. Barack Obama was elected President, and his party had bolstered its majority in Congress. For a moment, anything was possible for the Democrats.
Then 2009 happened.
In Albany, a handful of Democratic senators threatened to throw their support to the GOP in an apparent power grab. The ordeal brought the Senate's work to a screeching halt over the summer. Meanwhile, Governor David Paterson's approval rating tanked.
In Washington, Wall Street bailouts, a ten percent unemployment rate, and a historic mishandling of health care reform channeled voter outrage at Obama and the Dems.
This November, every statewide office and all of the seats in the state Legislature – along with both of the state's seats in the U.S. Senate - are up for grabs. While the Democrats are split, with contentious primaries expected in the races for governor and junior U.S. senator, Republicans seem to be coalescing around a platform of lower taxes, less spending, and greater accountability.
Last year, Republican Rob Astorino ousted popular three-term Westchester County Executive Andy Spano. Some Democrats chalked this up to frustration that led voters to choose the challenger over the incumbent. However, longtime Rockland County Executive Scott Vanderhoef, a Republican, handily won reelection on a similar platform as Astorino's.
"Our recent victories in New York - and recent GOP triumphs on other Democratic turf such as Massachusetts and New Jersey - prove that the message is resonating with the voters," State GOP Chairman Ed Cox said in a recent New York Post editorial, referring to newly minted Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. "That gives Republicans a unique opportunity to win big this fall."
This month, the GOP took three out of four special elections for vacated seats in the state Assembly, including a White Plains-area seat held by the Democrats for 17 years. While Democrats still hold a 108 – 43 advantage in the chamber, the recent triumphs have given GOP officials hope and momentum.
"People are sick and tired of the 'tax-and-spend' policies and the lack of a voice in Albany," said Assemblyman Bob Castelli, who won the White Plains seat. "We have decided we're not taking it anymore."
Assembly Minority Leader Brian Kolb, R-Canandaigua, Ontario County, told the Albany Times Union that the Assembly races are a "bellwether of things to come in November."
Scarsdale resident Harry J. Wilson could become part of the trend. Wilson, 38, a former hedge-fund star and member of the Obama task force charged with overhauling the country's auto industry, recently announced his candidacy for state comptroller.
The comptroller is the state's chief financial officer and sole trustee of New York's $130 billion pension fund, one of the largest in the country. Despite taking some big hits during the recession, the fund is currently performing beyond expectations. According to a report released this week by the Pew Center, New York is one of only four states with a "fully funded" pension system.
The comptroller's office also is endowed with the power to audit state agencies, municipalities and school districts. This is often seen as a politicized function, as the audits can draw attention to wasteful government spending.
Incumbent Thomas DiNapoli was chosen by the state Legislature to finish the term of disgraced former comptroller Alan Hevesi, who resigned amidst charges that he repeatedly used a chauffeur on the state's payroll to take his wife shopping.
If elected, Wilson would be the first comptroller with a background in investing since Morris Tremaine, who filled the post from 1927 to 1941. (Carl McCall, who served as comptroller from 1993 to 2002, had experience as a bank manager.)
So-called "business candidates" like Wilson tend to be overwhelmingly Republican, as they often favor lax regulation and tax cuts. Both DiNapoli and Hevesi are career politicians with educational backgrounds in public policy. (To be sure, Hevesi's career ended when he was found guilty and a court barred him from ever holding public office again.)
Wilson spokesman Bill O'Reilly did not return calls seeking comment, but Wilson made his views clear in a letter to Republican officials.
"New York State needs fiscal experts at the helm of government. Our current budget predicament makes that clear," Wilson wrote. "And the [Assembly] special election wins in Nassau, Suffolk, and Westchester counties last week prove that voters across the state are all ready to support fiscal conservatives in 2010."
In addition to the comptroller's post and the State Senate majority, analysts say the GOP has a realistic chance of picking up a U.S. Senate seat – thanks to the vulnerability of Senator Kirsten Gillibrand – and several more seats in the Assembly.
Statewide GOP candidates face an electorate in which Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two to one.
Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat, is largely expected to be the state's next governor, though he has not yet officially announced his candidacy. Former Long Island Congressman Rick Lazio is expected to pick up the GOP nomination.
Wilson and DiNapoli will likely go head-to-head in November.